My NFL mock draft, take these top 10 picks to the bank

 

Some five hours before the start of the NFL draft and the fog of misdirection is beginning to clear to the extent that clubs picking at the top of the draft are beginning to show their hands.

Hence my first and only mock draft for 2014.

1. Houston: Jadeveon Clowney, DE South Carolina

The Texans would like to deal down but and get some extra picks but they don’t want to give the pick away either. Clowney is the draft’s top talent but it’s doubtful a team will part with extra first rounders.

2. St. Louis: Greg Robinson, T Auburn

He may not be the most polished tackle in the draft but he has the most upside. The Rams will hope he turns into another Orlando Pace. He may never get to that Hall of Fame and still be a pretty good consolation prize.

3. Jacksonville: Khalil Mack, LB, Buffalo

  The best all-round linebacker in the draft and at this point in time, its best pass rusher, is a nice cornerstone for the Jaguars to once again rebuild on.

4. Cleveland: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson

 The Browns won’t be able to pass up on the best playmaker in the draft, especially with another first-round in their back pocket. Watkins is the complete package in terms of route-running, hands, explosiveness and the ability to break tackles after the catch.

5. Oakland: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M

 Even with Al Davis gone, the Raiders remain the draft's wild card. They will think long and hard about quarterback Derek Carr here but Evans’ combination of size, speed and jumping ability make it a no brainer.

6. Atlanta: Jake Matthews, T, Texas A&M

 Though the Falcons will take a flyer on moving up for either Clowney or Mack, they’ll find the price too costly for what they’re potentially giving up. Matthews, a solid blocker with Hall of Fame bloodlines, will solve a good part of the Atlanta’s offensive line woes.

7. Tampa Bay: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M

  Make it three Aggies in a row. Who thought Johnny Football would last this long? If the Bucs don’t pick him, he could be this year’s Aaron Rodgers. The Bucs have enjoyed a bountiful offseason and with Evans gone, they come away with the draft’s biggest name.

8. Minnesota: Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida

 The Vikings need a quarterback and Bortles has the body type new offensive co-ordinator Norv Turner prefers in his passers. The Matt Cassel era will be short in the Twin Cities, and it all depends on how fast Bortles develops. He has all the tools.

9. Buffalo: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, LSU

 The consensus all along has been for the Bills to draft tight end Eric Ebron but whispers out of Buffalo give the speedy and explosive Beckham Jr. the inside track. He’s the draft’s late riser.

10. Detroit: Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State

 The Lions need coverage help terribly and Gilbert, of the top corners in the draft, has the size to match up with the Bears’ big wide receivers and speed to deal with the Pack’s three-pronged attack as well.  

Is Jadeveon Clowney lazy or an LT clone? Neither, it's just the NFL Draft's silly season

 The pre-draft silly season is here. How can you tell? Just read the Jadeveon Clowney headlines.

He's spoiled and lazy, charges one anonymous scout identified only as belonging to the National Football Conference. At the same time, some mock drafters compare some of his skills to Lawrence Taylor’s.

As the consensus top talent in the draft, the Southern Carolina defensive end is undergoing the relentless scrutiny that comes when the NFL's annual player selection meeting is held in May instead of its previous late April launch.

Clowney has become the main target because no quarterbacks have risen to challenge his throne. Ask the draft experts who the top pivot in this class is and you're likely to get two answers: Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel.

Both of those QBs have enough questions on their resumes that they're having a tough time knocking off Clowney from the top perch. Further clouding the quarterback debate is that there are four or five other passers who could be drafted in the first three rounds and could eventually lay claim to the best quarterback drafted in 2014: Teddy Bridgewater, Zach Mettenberger, Derek Carr, A.J. McCarron and Jimmy Garoppolo. Even Pittsburgh’s Tom Savage is moving up the charts.

The gap between Bortles and Mettenberger or between Manziel and Bridgewater, depending on which type of passer you prefer, may not be worth making the leap to the top of the draft, if similar options can be had at the middle or bottom of the first round.

That's not to say some team, say Buffalo or Cleveland, may be enamoured to trade up and draft Johnny Football, as he would bring added pizzazz to either franchise, but thus far, Clowney has remained at the top of the charts.

So, is he lazy or LT? As usual with hyperbole, he’s somewhere in between. His stats from last season are rather pedestrian, 41 tackles, 3 sacks; compared to 40 tackles and 13 sacks in 2012.

 There’s no question his productivity was disappointing for someone with his athletic abilities but take a closer look at South Carolina games. There aren’t a lot of double teams. But which way are the plays going?

The majority of plays directed the football away from Clowney. They occasionally went at him to keep the defence honest but mostly they didn’t need to double team because game plans directed the flow away from him. It’s hard to rack up defensive stats when most of the game is on the other side of the field.

There’s no questioning his first step. It is stunningly quick and allowed him to be a tremendous disruptor in the run game as offensive tackles often flailed in reaching for him. His speed, 4.53, at 266 lbs. at the combine, speaks for itself.

But before we crown him as the next LT, realize that his pass rushing skills need a lot of polishing. Those bullrushes that wreaked havoc in the SEC are unlikely to make a dent in the NFL. He plays too upright and seems too stiff in the upper body as a rusher.

What do I mean by that?

The late Derrick Thomas had perhaps the quickest first step next to LT but he combined that with a rare ability to rush the passer at unbelievable angles, where his body would be nearly parallel with the ground yet still be able to generate enough power and speed to allow him to shoulder through linemen. It was freakish, like Taylor.

Clowney plays a more like LaVar Arrington than Taylor or Thomas. A penetrator who will shoot the gap and who is athletic enough to make a difference but one who may not be a great factor on the pass rush.

At the top of the board, he remains a safer pick than either of the quarterbacks but those pivots tend to rise in the weeks leading up to the draft as teams start to jostle for draft position.

In 2010, Ndamukong Suh graded out as the most talented player on the board but Sam Bradford rose to the top of the charts after he put up a Troy Aikman-like pro-day workout and was selected by the Rams.

With three weeks to go, Clowney remains the top mock pick but as you can see, the misdirection plays are just beginning.